Tamiflu / Antiflu

In the pharma industry, to bring a product to market is no easy task. There is a huge stage-gate process during drug development and a lengthy clinical trial for the FDA approval. A high investment in R&D is required and the failure rate of products is very high. So to protect the industry, U.S. grants patents on drugs that offer exclusive right for the pharma company to make, sell and reap the rewards of the innovation for a 20 year period. So it only takes one or two succesful drugs for pharma companies to sustain and generate a rate of return that is acceptable to the investors. Having said that, Pharma industry makes above average return in general and considered as one of the attractive investment opportunities.

In 1970, India put into place a series of policies aimed at moving the country towards self sufficiency in medicines. At this time, the national sector was less than 25% of the domestic pharmaceutical market. Of the top ten firms by retail sales, only two where Indian firms and the rest were subsidiaries of multinationals. Much of the country's pharmaceutical consumption was met by imports. Most of the Indian population could not afford the imported medicine and millions of people were dying because medicines were not affordable. The national sentiment on this issue is well captured by the Indira Gandhi's statement at the world health assembly in 1982, "The idea of a better-ordered world is one in which medical discoveries will be free of patents and there will be no profiteering from life and death"

India passed the Patents Act 1970 that greatly weakened intellectual property protection in India, particularly for pharmaceutial products. Pharmaceutical innovations as well as those of food and agro-chemicals become un-patentable, allowing innovations patented elsewhere to be freely copied and marketed in India. Supported by this regulatory environment, by 1991, Indian firms accounted for 70% of the bulk drugs sold in India.

Of course, this issue which is identified as TRIPs (Trade Related aspects of Intellectual property rights) has been one of the main issues of contention at GATT summits for a long time.

Fast forward to the present day. The one company (Roche) that manufactures Tamiflu could not manufacture and supply enough quantity for this U.S. national H1N1 flu emergency. Tamiflu patent is valid until 2016. Indian pharma company Cipla has a generic drug that it reverse engineered from Tamiflu, called Antiflu, and Cipla is ready to step in to meet the demand. Center for disease control (CDC) and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) are considering bringing in Antiflu into the U.S market.

For a long time, the developed nations condemned India as a pirate. Indian government acted to make life saving medicines affordable to its millions. Weighing the Return on Investment of Pharma companies on one hand and the life of millions of people on the other, the choice of Indian government is not surprising. Now U.S is made to choose between those same two choices. Should be interesting to see the U.S. decision.

Craftspeople and Seers

Craftspeople are highly skilled experts in the practice of one's craft. Master craftspeople are best students when they were in the school. They are excellent problem solvers. In the normal period of work, you need crafts people to run the business smooth. Lot of people fall into this category.

Seers are creative rebels with rare talent. Seers are capable of ferreting out wrong assumptions or ask the right questions. Seers are highly trained, but need not be technically as proficient as craftspeople. Seers are dreamers. During revolutionary periods, you need seers, who can peer ahead into the darkness.

The prime example of a Seer is Einstein. He couldn't get a decent job as a scientist when he was young, slow in argument, easily confused; others were much better at mathematics. Einstein said to have remarked, "It's not that I am so smart. It's just that I stay with the problems longer."

Like anything, there are exceptions to this categorization. Isaac Newton is both an extraordinary visionary and the best mathematician of his day. Almost everything about Newton is singular and inexplicable.

- Derived from the book "The Trouble with Physics" by Lee Smolin

Capitalistic vision Vs "Too big to fail" policy

The following is a powerful visionary statement of the CEO Arthur Jenson to the mad television anchor Mr. Beale in the movie 'Network' (yr 1976 - great movie to watch!).

(In a loud dramatic voice!) "You have meddled with the primal forces of nature, Mr. Beale, and I won't have it!! Is that clear?! You think you've merely stopped a business deal. That is not the case. The Arabs have taken billions of dollars out of this country, and now they must put it back! It is ebb and flow, tidal gravity! It is ecological balance! You are an old man who thinks in terms of nations and peoples. There are no nations. There are no peoples. There are no Russians. There are no Arabs. There are no third worlds. There is no West. There is only one holistic system of systems, one vast and immane, interwoven, interacting, multivariate, multi-national dominion of dollars. Petro-dollars, electro-dollars, multi-dollars, Reichmarks, Yen, Rubles, Pounds, and Shekels. It is the international system of currency which determines the totality of life on this planet. That is the natural order of things today. That is the atomic and subatomic and galactic structure of things today! And YOU have meddled with the primal forces of nature, and YOU WILL ATONE!

(Soft voice) Am I getting through to you, Mr. Beale?

(Loud again) You get up on your little twenty-one inch screen and howl about America and democracy. There is no America. There is no democracy. There is only IBM and ITT and AT&T and DuPont, Dow, Union Carbide, and Exxon. Those are the nations of the world today. What do you think the Russians talk about in their councils of state — Karl Marx? They get out their linear programming charts, statistical decision theories, minimax solutions, and compute the price-cost probabilities of their transactions and investments, just like we do.

We no longer live in a world of nations and ideologies, Mr. Beale. The world is a college of corporations, inexorably determined by the immutable bylaws of business. The world is a business, Mr. Beale. It has been since man crawled out of the slime. And our children will live, Mr. Beale, to see that perfect world in which there's no war or famine, oppression or brutality — one vast and ecumenical holding company, for whom all men will work to serve a common profit, in which all men will hold a share of stock, all necessities provided, all anxieties tranquilized, all boredom amused"

- From the movie Network (1976)


Is this capitalistic vision doomed by the current worldwide economic crisis? We are certainly bitten by the "Too big to fail" policy. "Governments" had to bail out big banks and corporations all over the world.

The notion of separation of State and Business (Wall Street) is not working, is it?! Ayn Rand's school of thought subscribed to by such stalwarts as Alan Greenspan that "unregulated market will take care of itself" has caused this "moral hazard" where in tax payers ended up paying for the mistakes of big businesses.

When religion was mixed with the State, it caused havoc in the earlier centuries. Separation of State and Religion policy eliminated the influence of religious leaders in the Government. Right now, there is a revolving door arrangement between Wall Street and Washington. Ex-Wall Street CEOs go into policy making to work as part of the government and retired politicians work for Wall Street as lobbyists for businesses. This arrangement has badly hurt the people all over the world but benefited Wall Street and the politicians handsomely.

Where do we go from here? Is this a passing phase? Is closing the revolving door possible? Is Government oversight a permanent requirement for big businesses? As of now, it looks like that grand capitalistic vision of establishing one big corporation for the entire world will never work. There is too much at stake for such a company to fail. As long as sovereign nations exist to protect the citizens within the physical boundaries of a country, the global vision will be limited and strictly regulated. Currency values, exports, imports, tariffs, subsidies will be determined by the government policies rather than by the business interests.

In short, politics will trump economics always. Although economics is global all politics is local!
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Physical frontiers of nature

Do you know that we can explain everything in the known world with only 12 particles and 4 forces!?

Six kinds of quarks (up, down, charm, strange, top, bottom) and six kinds of leptons (Electron, Mu, Tau, Electron neutrino, Mu neutrino, Tau neutrino) interact with each other through four forces, namely: gravity, electromagnetism, strong and weak nuclear forces.

Physicists are trying to find a single, fundamental entity to these particles and unify the forces for many years with no solid result beyond this standard model of elementary particles. String theory with all the extra dimensions still remains inadequate.

For now we understand and can explain the world through the 12 fundamental particles and 4 kind of forces.

Deepavali surprise!

The benefit of being disorganized is that you are constantly surprising yourself!

Well. Back in 2007 during the India trip I bought a couple of dhotis for me. Of course it is not practical to wear a dhoti during winter months. Besides the opportunities to wear it outdoor is slim to none. But it serves as a nice at home dress in addition to pjs during summer months. I left one of those dhotis unopened behind my dresser and totally forgot about it until this morning. It is a tradition to celebrate Diwali with new dress. I had a shirt that I had picked up earlier for formal use. But didn't bother with buying new pants since I had one too many of them. But hooray... it was a great surprise to spot a new dhoti on Deepavali morning!

Happy Deepavali greetings to all.

LCROSS ready for impact on the south pole of moon

Oct 9th is the impact. Learn more from the live NASA feed.

On the Journey of Self Invention

Psychoanalyst Erik Erikson divides life into eight developmental stages.

Stages of Life	Conflicts	Choices
Infancy	Basic Trust Vs Basic Mistrust	Hope or Withdrawal
Early Childhood	Autonomy Vs Shame, Doubt	Will or Compulsion
Play Age	Initiative Vs Guilt	Purpose or Inhibition
School Age	Industry Vs Inferiority	Competence or Inertia
Adolescence	Identity Vs Identity Confusion	Fidelity or Repudiation
Young Adulthood	Intimacy Vs Isolation	Love or Exclusivity
Adulthood	Generativity Vs Stagnation	Care or Rejectivity
Old Age	Integrity Vs Despair	Wisdom or Disdain

Erikson believed that we do not proceed to the next stage until each stages crisis has been satisfactorily resolved. Dr. Roger Gould states that in order to overcome the adaptational warp of the early life, one has to continually re-examine the defenses and assumptions. Feelings are memories of past behavior. When you sort them out and see what's current and what's left over, you can begin to use your thinking process to change your behavior. Withdrawal can be turned to hope, compulsion to will, inhibition to purpose and inertia to competence through exercise of memory and understanding. Becoming the kind of person you want to be is the ultimate act of free will !

-derived from the book "On Becoming a Leader" by Warren Bennis

All the way to Madurai

For sometime lately I have been toying with the idea of a adventurous journey to Madurai, my hometown in India from New York City and back. Sure, going to JFK by using public transportation could be adventurous but I am talking about a different kind of adventure - Riding a motorcycle.......all the way(Yeah, right...).

I came with this idea through several avenues - First I figured out that journeys have the capability of completely transforming people - we find examples throughout history. Only a journey changed Siddhartha into Buddha and Ernesto Guevara into Che Guevara. Even Mahatma Gandhi took a train journey to discover India. Hopefully a motorcycle journey will change me in similar ways. While this is on one hand, I also wanted to travel through whole of Europe stopping at historically important places - by 'historically' I mean WWII, of course. That travel could be on anything - But the freedom a motorcycle offers, particularly if it is off-road capable like the one I have, is unmatched by any other. Pack a couple of bags + tent + sleeping bag and you are ready to discover the world!!

With that said, let me speak about the places I want to see, the route I want to take etc. I have so far only planned the Europe part properly. Imagine I head out east from NYC to London on a plane and start my journey to Madurai from there. I would first ride to the beaches of Normandy where thousands of allied soldiers died on D-Day. Then I would go to Belgium tracing back the routes Guderian and Rommel took during the invasion of France. I definitely want to spend some time in Ardennes, particularly Bastogne where the 'Easy company' from 'Band of Brothers' and others fought so bravely in the winter of 1944. Then I would proceed to the Ludendorff bridge at Remagen, the only bridge intact that Patton's army managed to capture while trying to cross the Rhine. In Germany I would trace through the rise of Nazi party, and, of course, see the "Eagle's nest" at Berchtesgaden. Then I would proceed on to the eastern front, where lies the most important place of the entire European section - Stalingrad, now called Volgagrad. I would spend at least a week in this place where the bloodiest battle in history took place. It would be a privilege to keep a bottle of dirt collected from there. Along with a piece of metal I collected from a restored C-47 that actually dropped 101st Airborne (Band of brothers) on D-Day as well as Operation MarketGarden and also participated in Berlin airlift, I will keep this bottle on a showcase.

So far this is the plan - have to plan the rest of the route. Any suggestions? You may also write about any similar journey you always wanted to take.

Rare alignment - U.S. and Venezuela

In June, I wrote about the unraveling constitutional crisis in Honduras. Well, it has just got messier!

Strangely enough, U.S. and Venezuela find themselves on the same side, albeit for completely different reasons. U.S. wants to restore order and considers removing and extraditing a sitting President as a bad precedence and refuses to accept it as a legitimate move by the Honduran Congress, Supreme court and the Military. There is definitely a point in that view. Military reports to the President and cannot take orders from the Supreme Court or the Congress. President may need to be impeached by the Congress and removed from office. Not under the military gun based on a Supreme Court order in the middle of the night. The swift removal of the President from Power and the escorted expulsion from the Presidential palace and the country is chilling misuse of power.

Venezuela president on the other hand wants his buddy Mr. Zelaya to remain in power without any term limit just as himself is in his country. Mr. Zelaya earlier attempted to amend the constitution to eliminate the presidential term limit through a public referendum. That is disturbing in itself. Countries that are Republic allow Constitutional amendments only after discussion and debate of the elected representatives and through a ballot typically requiring two thirds majority to support any amendment. Honduras is a republic. Public Referendums only lead to tyranny of the masses. A country's Constitution cannot be changed based on a popularity contest or fickle public opinions.

In any case, Mr. Zelaya's move initiated all of what is unraveling now. He has returned back into the country and has taken refuge in the Brazilian embassy. From this diplomatic den he is inciting his supporters to agitate in the streets on his behalf. The sitting President for his part has promulgated curfews and other rules to restrain the public. It is never going to be easy to come out of this stalemate.

In June 1975, India went through similar crisis. On a bold judgment, Allahabad High Court ruled that the election of the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi as null and void. The rightful move by the Prime Minister should have been to step down and let the President conduct re-election on the constituency. Instead, Indira Gandhi used a rare provision in the Indian Constitution, Article 352 to declare National Emergency. Through this declaration the Executive branch instantly got overwhelming power. Power to detain and arrest anyone without any due process. Media was heavily censored and the Court system was severely undermined. The crisis came to an end after nearly two years in March 1977 when the general elections was conducted. The Congress Party led by Indira Gandhi lost the elections for the first time in Independent India.

Anytime the Executive branch grabs power, it is the first step to establishing martial law and dictatorial regimes. We have seen this many times over in Pakistan. Myanmar is a living example of a country ruled by military junta. Equatorial Guinea in the Central Africa has been ruled by two ruthless men from the same family since 1968. The ruling oligarchy of the Middle East is no stranger to the world.

In the U.S. wartime provision of the Constitution lend shift in power to the President. President Lincoln suspended Habeas Corpus during civil war and President FDR curtailed civil liberties of the citizens of Japanese origin by moving them into the internment camps during WWII. Both these regrettable events were turned over after the war. If every country goes through stages of evolution to establish its norms as a sovereign nation, it is Honduras turn now.

Better explained!

Ever wondered what the natural logarithm, exponents (e), complex numbers, etc mean really?

Here is a fantastic site that explains it.

Eye of God

If the lengths of sides of a rectangle are in the golden ratio, then the rectangle is a golden rectangle. It is possible to divide a golden rectangle into a square and a golden rectangle. We could continue this process indefinitely, producing smaller and smaller golden rectangles. The point at which all the golden rectangles converge is referred to as the "Eye of God". We can magnify the figure but can never get to the 'Eye' using finite magnifications. If we connect all the vertices's, we form a logarithmic spiral that envelops the "Eye of God".

For the mathematically inclined...

An impressive turn around

My mom got the passport yesterday. That is within two weeks of application! I got to admit it is a very impressive turn around for passport re-issue. It takes about the same time in US. But the demand in India is more than 3 times that here. They must be doing something right in the back room. Kudos to that. Friendlier service would reduce the stress of the applicants. There are real problems with the public interface that needs to get addressed. Let's hope we get there sooner than later.

A -ve turned funny and +ve

Artist

If you use your hand, you are labor;
if you use your hand and mind, you are crafts person;
if you use your hand, mind and heart, you are an artist.

Cycle of Market Emotions

Imagination at work

Four principles of decision making

1. Only certainty is that there is no certainty.
2. Every decision is a matter of weighing probabilities.
3. Despite uncertainty we must decide and we must act.
4. We need to judge decisions not only on the results, but on how they were made.

"Reject absolute answers and recognize uncertainty. Weigh the probabilities. Don't let uncertainty paralyze you."

- 70th Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin. May 1999.