Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Baldness and Malaria

Do you know that the ratio of amount spent annually on treating baldness Vs treating malaria is 50 to 1?

Malaria kills about a million people in Africa and Asia every year. Yet, it does not offer an attractive market opportunity for businesses to invest capital to address the issue. On the other hand, baldness affects rich old men who care to look young. This customer is willing and able to spend considerable amount of money to get cure for baldness. They have enough disposable income that presents an attractive market opportunity for businesses to go after!

- From Bill Gates speech on TED.org


Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Tamiflu / Antiflu

In the pharma industry, to bring a product to market is no easy task. There is a huge stage-gate process during drug development and a lengthy clinical trial for the FDA approval. A high investment in R&D is required and the failure rate of products is very high. So to protect the industry, U.S. grants patents on drugs that offer exclusive right for the pharma company to make, sell and reap the rewards of the innovation for a 20 year period. So it only takes one or two succesful drugs for pharma companies to sustain and generate a rate of return that is acceptable to the investors. Having said that, Pharma industry makes above average return in general and considered as one of the attractive investment opportunities.

In 1970, India put into place a series of policies aimed at moving the country towards self sufficiency in medicines. At this time, the national sector was less than 25% of the domestic pharmaceutical market. Of the top ten firms by retail sales, only two where Indian firms and the rest were subsidiaries of multinationals. Much of the country's pharmaceutical consumption was met by imports. Most of the Indian population could not afford the imported medicine and millions of people were dying because medicines were not affordable. The national sentiment on this issue is well captured by the Indira Gandhi's statement at the world health assembly in 1982, "The idea of a better-ordered world is one in which medical discoveries will be free of patents and there will be no profiteering from life and death"

India passed the Patents Act 1970 that greatly weakened intellectual property protection in India, particularly for pharmaceutial products. Pharmaceutical innovations as well as those of food and agro-chemicals become un-patentable, allowing innovations patented elsewhere to be freely copied and marketed in India. Supported by this regulatory environment, by 1991, Indian firms accounted for 70% of the bulk drugs sold in India.

Of course, this issue which is identified as TRIPs (Trade Related aspects of Intellectual property rights) has been one of the main issues of contention at GATT summits for a long time.

Fast forward to the present day. The one company (Roche) that manufactures Tamiflu could not manufacture and supply enough quantity for this U.S. national H1N1 flu emergency. Tamiflu patent is valid until 2016. Indian pharma company Cipla has a generic drug that it reverse engineered from Tamiflu, called Antiflu, and Cipla is ready to step in to meet the demand. Center for disease control (CDC) and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) are considering bringing in Antiflu into the U.S market.

For a long time, the developed nations condemned India as a pirate. Indian government acted to make life saving medicines affordable to its millions. Weighing the Return on Investment of Pharma companies on one hand and the life of millions of people on the other, the choice of Indian government is not surprising. Now U.S is made to choose between those same two choices. Should be interesting to see the U.S. decision.

Friday, November 06, 2009

Craftspeople and Seers

Craftspeople are highly skilled experts in the practice of one's craft. Master craftspeople are best students when they were in the school. They are excellent problem solvers. In the normal period of work, you need crafts people to run the business smooth. Lot of people fall into this category.

Seers are creative rebels with rare talent. Seers are capable of ferreting out wrong assumptions or ask the right questions. Seers are highly trained, but need not be technically as proficient as craftspeople. Seers are dreamers. During revolutionary periods, you need seers, who can peer ahead into the darkness.

The prime example of a Seer is Einstein. He couldn't get a decent job as a scientist when he was young, slow in argument, easily confused; others were much better at mathematics. Einstein said to have remarked, "It's not that I am so smart. It's just that I stay with the problems longer."

Like anything, there are exceptions to this categorization. Isaac Newton is both an extraordinary visionary and the best mathematician of his day. Almost everything about Newton is singular and inexplicable.

- Derived from the book "The Trouble with Physics" by Lee Smolin